Roger Altman, the founder of Evercore, offers an optimistic view of the US economy, suggesting that it may have navigated past the threat of a recession and is transitioning smoothly towards what economists often refer to as a “soft landing.” This term describes a scenario where economic growth slows to a more sustainable pace without tipping into recession. Altman’s assessment comes at a time when concerns about a potential economic downturn are prevalent, particularly as expectations of higher interest rates linger.
One of the key pillars supporting Altman’s optimism is the robust growth exhibited by the US economy over the past year, which has exceeded the expectations of economists. Data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggests that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) may have surged by 2.4% in the first quarter, defying earlier projections. Additionally, Altman highlights the resilience of the job market, with the unemployment rate reaching a historic low of 3.8% in March, surpassing previous forecasts by a considerable margin. Moreover, labor productivity, a key metric for assessing economic health, has remained strong, registering a year-over-year increase of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Despite these positive indicators, concerns about softening in certain aspects of the labor market persist. Altman acknowledges that there are signs of weakening in some labor market indicators, such as job gain revisions and quits. However, he maintains that the overall trajectory of the economy remains positive, with growth outpacing earlier forecasts.
Altman’s optimism extends to the stock market, which has shown resilience despite recent volatility triggered by shifts in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Concerns about higher-than-expected inflation have led investors to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts, contributing to fluctuations in market sentiment.
Looking ahead, Altman suggests that the US economy’s performance may continue to exceed expectations, indicating that the much-feared soft landing may have already occurred. This optimistic outlook contrasts with warnings from some Wall Street analysts who caution about the possibility of a recession. Despite such warnings, Altman remains confident in the economy’s resilience, emphasizing its ability to weather challenges and maintain a positive trajectory.
In conclusion, Altman’s assessment offers a hopeful perspective on the US economy, suggesting that it may have successfully navigated past recent uncertainties and is on track for continued growth and stability.