The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked a significant turning point in history, ushering in an era of political upheaval and economic transformation. Amidst the social and geopolitical reverberations of this momentous event, scientists have long speculated about its potential impact on global methane emissions—a potent greenhouse gas implicated in climate change dynamics. Recent research conducted by a team of atmospheric scientists at the University of Washington has shed new light on this complex issue, challenging prevailing assumptions and revealing unexpected trends in methane emissions following the dissolution of the USSR.
Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study examines the case of Turkmenistan, a former Soviet republic and major oil producer, to unravel the intricate interplay between economic collapse, energy production, and methane emissions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, which posited that the decline in oil and gas production precipitated by the Soviet Union’s collapse would lead to a reduction in methane emissions, the findings of this research paint a different picture. Instead of witnessing a decline, the researchers observed a notable increase in methane emissions in Turkmenistan during the post-collapse period—a revelation that challenges prevailing narratives and underscores the complexity of atmospheric methane dynamics.
At the heart of this groundbreaking research lies a combination of innovative methodologies, including satellite imaging and artificial intelligence AI analysis, which enabled the researchers to analyze methane plumes with unprecedented precision and scale. By leveraging early satellite records dating back to the late 1980s, the researchers were able to track changes in methane emissions over a span of several decades, providing invaluable insights into the underlying drivers of these emissions trends.
The study’s lead author, Dr. Tai-Long He, a postdoctoral researcher in atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, highlights the pivotal role of AI in advancing our understanding of atmospheric phenomena. “Our field has a lot of data sets, but we don’t have very efficient tools to analyze them,” says He. “This will become worse in the future with more satellites being launched, so we need the help of AI to improve our understanding of atmospheric phenomena.”
Using satellite imagery captured by NASA’s Landsat-5 satellite, the researchers identified a total of 776 methane plumes in Turkmenistan between 1986 and 2011. What emerged from their analysis was a striking pattern of increasing methane emissions post-1991, coinciding with a decline in gas production—a trend that defied conventional expectations and challenged prevailing hypotheses.
The implications of these findings extend far beyond the borders of Turkmenistan, raising fundamental questions about the drivers of atmospheric methane trends and the factors influencing global methane emissions. While carbon dioxide remains the primary focus of climate mitigation efforts due to its longer-term warming potential, methane’s shorter atmospheric lifespan and potent heat-trapping capabilities underscore the importance of understanding and addressing its sources.
The study’s senior author, Dr. Alex Turner, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, emphasizes the broader implications of their research. “Methane has these enigmatic trends that we don’t really understand,” says Turner. “One that has always been fascinating is this slowdown in 1992. We find that the collapse of the Soviet Union seems to result, surprisingly, in an increase in methane emissions.”
The researchers speculate that a combination of factors, including failing infrastructure, reduced oversight of oil and gas wells, and disrupted export routes, may have contributed to the observed increase in methane emissions. Additionally, geopolitical events such as Russia’s refusal to allow Turkmenistan to pump gas through its pipelines in 1994 further exacerbated the situation, leading to heightened methane venting into the atmosphere.
As the world grapples with the urgent challenge of climate change, the findings of this research underscore the importance of understanding the complex interplay between human activities, geopolitical events, and atmospheric dynamics. By unraveling the enigma of post-Soviet methane emissions, scientists are paving the way for more informed decision-making and targeted mitigation strategies aimed at addressing one of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.
