A toxic algal bloom is predicted to impact western Lake Erie this summer, posing significant risks to wildlife and human health while potentially harming local economies. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday that this year’s harmful algal bloom (HAB) is expected to measure 5 on the severity index, similar to last year’s severity index of 5.3. The severity index is based on the biomass or amount of algal in the bloom over the last 30 days, with higher values indicating more severe blooms. For reference, the most severe blooms recorded were in 2011 and 2015, with severity indices of 10 and 10.5, respectively.
What are Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)?
HABs contain cyanobacteria, commonly known as blue-green algae, which produce a liver toxin called microcystin. These blooms not only damage local economies by hindering activities such as fishing, swimming, and boating, but also pose significant health risks to humans. The presence of microcystin in the water can lead to liver damage and other health issues if ingested or through skin contact during recreational activities.
Economic and Environmental Impact
The economic repercussions of HABs can be severe. As NOAA stated, HABs prevent people from engaging in recreational activities such as fishing, swimming, boating, and visiting the shoreline, which are vital for the local economy. The closure of beaches and restrictions on water activities due to HABs could lead to a significant loss of revenue for businesses dependent on tourism and recreational fishing.
Predicting and Managing HABs
NOAA has improved its ability to predict HABs thanks to advancements in satellite data and updated prediction models developed over recent years. These models have been refined using data gathered since 2013, replacing older information and enhancing the accuracy of forecasts. Nicole LeBoeuf, director of NOAA’s National Ocean Service, emphasized that improved forecasting helps communities plan better for varying bloom conditions, supporting the Great Lakes’ role in the Blue Economy.
Current Predictions and Uncertainties
This summer’s bloom is expected to start becoming visible early next month. The duration and severity of the bloom will depend on wind conditions in September, which are unpredictable this far in advance. Additionally, changing weather conditions could alter the size and severity of the bloom. Richard Stumpf, lead scientist for the seasonal Lake Erie bloom forecast, noted that blooms in Lake Erie have been developing earlier over the past decade for reasons not yet understood. While an early start does not necessarily lead to a larger bloom, it does mean the bloom could last longer.
Community and Environmental Response
Much like weather forecasts, NOAA will provide both short- and long-term forecasts for the algae bloom as it develops over the summer. These forecasts will help communities and local authorities prepare and respond to the evolving conditions. Understanding and mitigating the impacts of HABs is crucial for ensuring the health of the Great Lakes ecosystem and the economic well-being of the communities that depend on it.
Conclusion
The predicted toxic algal bloom in western Lake Erie this summer underscores the ongoing challenges posed by HABs to both environmental and human health. With the anticipated severity and the potential economic impact, it is essential for communities, scientists, and policymakers to collaborate closely. Improved forecasting and ongoing research are vital tools in managing these blooms and mitigating their adverse effects on the Great Lakes region.