Delays observed in the provision of U.S. military support to Ukraine may have permitted Russian forces to take measures that reduce the new Army Tactical Missile Systems’ (ATACMS) impact in the ongoing conflict, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on April 24.
This information surfaced following revelations that the U.S. had started covert shipments of these missiles to Ukraine this recent spring.
Previously, during the previous autumn, Ukraine received the first consignment of older, mid-range ATACMS missiles after extensive U.S. government contemplation. These older models can strike targets up to 165 kilometers away.
In contrast, the latest ATACMS versions can hit objectives nearly 300 kilometers distant, and until now, their deployment to Ukraine was obscured from public disclosure.
“Russian countermeasures to mitigate operational challenges posed by ATACMS may have been enabled by the delay in their arrival, which in turn could diminish their strategic impact,” the ISW stated.
Ukrainian forces aspire to leverage these advanced missiles to target Russian logistics hubs, airfields, ammunition storage sites, bridges, and communication lines. Nevertheless, the effect of such strikes could vary, as warned by the ISW.
The ISW noted that Russian strategies have probably been adjusted since the October 2023 ATACMS attacks using the short-range missiles, prompting the redeployment of military assets and safety measures for critical supplies from the frontline zones.
Regarding the current scenario where Russian aircraft employ glide bombs in daily assaults on locations like Kharkiv, the ISW holds that these aircraft could be relocated beyond ATACMS’ range, albeit with slight effects on Russian operational capabilities.
Despite potential adjustments by Russian forces, the ISW maintains that attacks on ammo depots—should they prove successful—could still pose a significant threat.
Following actions taken by the Russian military starting from October 2023 to counteract ATACMS, the spring and summer operations in 2024 involving Ukrainian ATACMS strikes may encounter reduced Russian logistical vulnerabilities.
Yet, even with delays, the high-range ATACMS missiles will still empower Ukrainian forces to threaten and potentially significantly damage broader Russian logistical support systems and crucial infrastructures like bridges that are pivotal for Russian operations in Ukraine, the institute added.
The precise number of ATACMS supplied to Ukraine is undisclosed, but they have already reportedly achieved certain breakthroughs.
One of the most notable uses occurred on April 17 when Ukrainian forces struck a Russian airfield in occupied Crimea using the newly-received missiles.
The offensive on the Dzhankoi airfield, about 165 kilometers from the battlefront, destroyed key Russian military equipment, as per Ukraine’s military intelligence.
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FAQ
- What is ATACMS?
- ATACMS, or Army Tactical Missile Systems, are precision-guided missiles capable of striking long-range targets with a significant impact on logistical and strategic military operations.
- How have delays in US aid potentially impacted their effectiveness in Ukraine?
- Delays may have allowed Russian forces to make adjustments, such as moving key assets further from the frontlines or hardening positions, potentially reducing the ATACMS’ impact.
- Have the ATACMS been used effectively by Ukraine so far?
- Yes, there have been successful uses reported, including a strike in April on the Dzhankoi airfield in occupied Crimea that resulted in substantial damage to Russian air defense equipment.
- Why is the range of the ATACMS important?
- The range determines how deep into enemy territory the missile can strike, affecting Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russian logistics and rear area operations.
Conclusion
The arrival of ATACMS in Ukraine, despite previously unreported delays in aid from the United States, has granted Ukrainian forces a more robust capability to challenge Russian logistical and strategic points deep within enemy-controlled territories. While some insurgents’ efficacy could be mitigated by anticipatory Russian military measures, the long-range ATACMS continues to represent a significant asset in Ukraine’s military strategy. The extent of the ATACMS’ impacts will unfold over time, but it’s evident that these systems have already begun shaping operational dynamics on the ground.