Texans vs. Jets Thursday Night Showdown: Odds, Lines, and Top Betting Picks
RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans — over 20.5 carries: With Nico Collins sidelined since Week 5, the Texans have shifted to a run-heavy strategy, now ranking top 10 in the NFL in run-play percentage (42.8%). With their wide receiver injuries mounting, Houston is likely to lean on its ground game even more, creating increased opportunities for Mixon.
2024 Record through Week 8: 18-20 (47.4%) — -1.8 units.
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Game Overview
Week 9 starts with two teams fighting to stay afloat as they head into the latter part of the season. The New York Jets, currently on a five-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread, are back in primetime. Primetime games have been particularly challenging for New York, as they've covered the spread in only one of four appearances this season, with their sole win coming at home against the Patriots in Week 3.
New York’s offensive woes have been glaring throughout their skid, with the team ranking in the NFL’s bottom third in overall offensive grade (69.2) and expected points added (EPA) per play since Week 4. The first quarter has been particularly rough, with the Jets ranking 31st in EPA per play, 28th in yards per play, and tied for last in turnovers, alongside a low successful play rate. While quarterback Aaron Rodgers maintains a respectable grading profile, he shares responsibility, sitting last among qualifiers in first-quarter passing grade (46.5).
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans have improved their against-the-spread record, going 3-1 in October after failing to cover any spread in September. Despite their challenges, the Texans have kept the game total under in all but two of their matchups this season. Injuries have battered Houston’s offense, with Nico Collins out since Week 5 and Stefon Diggs sidelined for the year after an ACL tear. This leaves the Texans’ passing game dependent on Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz.
Fortunately, Houston’s defense has helped keep games competitive by applying relentless pressure. In the past three games, they’ve recorded the second-highest pressures (67) and the third-highest knockdown rate (19.5%) in the league.
Key Player: Joe Mixon’s efficiency on the ground makes him a central figure for the Texans. Though sidelined briefly after an early Week 2 injury, he’s rushed for over 100 yards in every game he’s completed, aided by his high workload (25+ carries in three out of four games). Facing a Jets defense that ranks sixth in rush play percentage against (46.0%), and with limited competition in Houston's backfield, Mixon stands to have a substantial role in this game.
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