Wall Street Ends Higher on Expectations of Fed Rate Cut

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 3, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

On Friday, Wall Street experienced a notable upswing, culminating in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching intraday record highs. The market’s optimism stemmed primarily from widespread expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would embark on a course of interest rate cuts starting as early as September. This optimistic outlook bolstered investor confidence, contributing to gains across major indices despite mixed earnings reports from prominent financial institutions.

Technology giants like Apple and Nvidia were among the standout performers, rebounding strongly with each stock climbing over 1% following minor declines in the previous trading session. These gains were reflective of renewed investor faith in high-growth tech stocks, which have been pivotal in driving market momentum amid broader economic uncertainties.

However, the initial fervor that propelled the S&P 500 and Dow to new highs was somewhat tempered by the end of the trading day. While both indices surged to all-time peaks earlier, profit-taking and cautious sentiment led to a slight moderation in gains as the session concluded.

Financial sector dynamics were mixed, exemplified by JPMorgan Chase, which reported a second-quarter profit buoyed by robust investment banking fees. Despite the positive earnings report, JPMorgan’s stock edged down by 1.2%. Conversely, Wells Fargo faced a sharp decline of 6% after falling short of quarterly interest income expectations, underscoring challenges within the banking sector. Citigroup also saw its shares slip by 1.8%, despite reporting a significant rise in investment banking revenue. The overall performance of the S&P 500 banks index mirrored these mixed outcomes, closing down by 1.5% as investors weighed the impact of varying financial results.

In contrast, small-cap stocks exhibited notable strength, extending their rally for a third consecutive day. The Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller companies, surged by 1.1%, marking its highest level since 2022. Similarly, the S&P 400 Mid Cap index rose by 0.9%, underscoring investor interest in mid-sized firms poised to benefit from economic recovery and potential growth opportunities.

Tesla emerged as the most actively traded stock within the S&P 500, with trading volume reaching an impressive $38 billion during the session. The electric vehicle manufacturer’s stock price surged by 3%, reflecting robust investor appetite and speculative interest in the company’s future growth prospects.

By the market close, the S&P 500 had advanced by 0.55% to settle at 5,615.35 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.63% to reach 18,398.45 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also climbed by 0.62%, closing at 40,000.90 points.

For the week, the S&P 500 posted a solid gain of 0.9%, underscoring its resilience amidst fluctuating economic indicators and ongoing investor confidence in corporate earnings potential. The Nasdaq added 0.2%, while the Dow recorded a notable increase of 1.6%, highlighting its strong performance relative to other indices.

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate a robust 9.6% increase in second-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies, driven primarily by strong growth in the technology sector. Despite expected declines in sectors such as real estate, industrials, and materials, the overall outlook remains positive due to sustained momentum in high-growth areas like artificial intelligence and digital transformation.

Market sentiment remained largely unchanged despite a slightly higher-than-expected rise in producer prices reported for June, following Thursday’s unexpected decline in U.S. consumer prices. These economic indicators, coupled with heightened expectations of an impending rate cut by the Federal Reserve, contributed to a 94% probability of such a move by September, as indicated by CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

In summary, Friday’s market performance underscored the prevailing optimism surrounding potential Fed rate cuts, which buoyed indices to new highs despite mixed corporate earnings outcomes. The continued allure of technology stocks and small-cap equities reflected investor confidence in sectors poised for growth amidst evolving economic conditions.

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