Tesla’s stock performance has been lackluster this year, prompting nervous investors to speculate about the company’s future prospects regarding electric vehicle demand, pricing, and competition. However, the immediate concern lies in Tesla’s upcoming first-quarter delivery report, scheduled for April 2.
Analysts’ estimates for first-quarter deliveries, as aggregated by Bloomberg and FactSet, currently stand at just under 480,000 units. However, more recent estimates, updated in the past couple of weeks, paint a different picture, averaging around 430,000 units. This discrepancy highlights the challenge of relying on stale estimates and the potential creation of so-called whisper numbers, which represent the unofficial Wall Street consensus.
Whisper numbers often influence market reactions to earnings releases, as seen in Tesla’s third-quarter 2023 delivery report. Despite delivering about 435,000 units, slightly below the Wall Street estimate of 455,000 units, Tesla’s stock price gained as it met the whisper number. This forward-looking perspective is characteristic of the stock market, which often reacts to future expectations rather than past performance.
Looking ahead, investors are closely monitoring Tesla’s delivery report, with expectations of a number between 430,000 and 440,000 units. Market technicians, who analyze investor behavior through charts, anticipate potential price movements based on historical support and resistance levels. A true miss in delivery numbers could drive Tesla’s stock down to recent support around $164, while a positive delivery report may propel it to resistance levels near $177.
Beyond the delivery report, investors await Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report and conference call, where CEO Elon Musk’s insights on EV demand, pricing, and competition for the remainder of 2024 will be crucial. Tesla’s stock performance year-to-date reflects investors’ cautious sentiment, with a decline of about 31%, contrasting sharply with the positive performance of broader indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
In summary, while Tesla faces uncertainties in the near term, particularly surrounding delivery estimates and market sentiment, its long-term trajectory will hinge on its ability to address key industry dynamics and meet investor expectations.