The Midwest holds a pivotal role in the 2024 presidential race, with both Democrats and Republicans intensely vying for its support. The GOP’s recent decision to select Ohio Senator JD Vance as former President Donald Trump’s running mate has drawn significant attention. While GOP leaders are optimistic that this move will enhance their appeal in the region, Vance’s track record suggests a more nuanced scenario.
JD Vance, known primarily for his best-selling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” entered the political scene in 2022 with Trump’s endorsement, which propelled him to victory in the GOP primary. This backing was crucial in a state where Trump’s influence remains strong. Vance’s candidacy was expected to resonate with Ohio’s blue-collar workers, a demographic that often determines electoral outcomes in this key Midwestern battleground. Ohio, once a quintessential swing state, has leaned more Republican in recent years, giving the GOP confidence in Vance’s appeal.
However, Vance’s 2022 Senate race against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan was far more competitive than many anticipated. Despite the state’s GOP tilt and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity in Ohio, Vance struggled to maintain a decisive lead over Ryan. Vance ultimately won the race by a narrow 6-point margin, a stark contrast to the more substantial victories secured by other Republican candidates in statewide races that year. For instance, Republican Governor Mike DeWine defeated his Democratic opponent, Nan Whaley, by a whopping 25 points, and both Attorney General Dave Yost and Secretary of State Frank LaRose were reelected by roughly 20 points each. This discrepancy highlighted potential vulnerabilities in Vance’s broader appeal, particularly in comparison to his Republican peers.
Tim Ryan’s campaign strategy played a significant role in the competitiveness of the Senate race. Hailing from Ohio’s blue-collar Mahoning Valley, Ryan ran a vigorous campaign focused on economic issues, positioning himself as a champion for working-class voters. He distanced himself from national Democratic figures, opting instead to campaign alongside fellow Ohioan Sen. Sherrod Brown. Ryan also actively courted Republicans and conservative-leaning Independents, emphasizing his independence from party lines and aiming to appeal to a broader electorate. This populist approach was similar to Vance’s own campaign, which was deeply tied to Trump’s “America First” policies, particularly concerning the economy and foreign policy. Despite these efforts, Vance found it challenging to break away from Ryan, illustrating the complexities of his appeal.
Vance’s suburban support was particularly weak. In urban and suburban regions, Ryan significantly outperformed Vance. For example, in Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati and is where Vance resides, Ryan won by nearly 16 points. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, Ryan won by 32 points, and in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and its inner-ring suburbs, Ryan emerged victorious by nearly 36 points. These results underscore a significant challenge for Vance: his positions on controversial issues such as abortion rights and aid to Ukraine may alienate moderate suburban voters. Vance hailed the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, a stance problematic for many moderates, and opposed providing aid to Ukraine, aligning himself with Trump’s views but diverging from more traditional GOP leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Republicans are banking on Vance’s appeal to boost their chances in key Midwestern states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, particularly in exurban and rural areas. Trump hopes that economic concerns will sway some Independents and Democratic-leaning swing voters towards the GOP. However, Vance’s lack of suburban appeal presents a significant hurdle. Suburban voters, who tend to hold more moderate views, are crucial for securing broader electoral support. Democrats, observing Vance’s underperformance in the Senate race, are hopeful they can leverage these weaknesses to counter the GOP ticket in the upcoming election.
The stakes are high as both parties strategize to win over the diverse electorate in the Midwest. While JD Vance’s selection as Trump’s running mate is aimed at consolidating and expanding Republican support in the region, his previous electoral performance and stances on divisive issues suggest a complex path ahead. The outcome will hinge on each party’s ability to appeal to the varied interests of Midwestern voters, balancing populist rhetoric with the nuanced concerns of suburban and urban communities.