The current landscape in the mortgage market suggests that while there’s an expectation for mortgage rates to decrease later this year, the potential benefits for prospective homebuyers might be mitigated by certain developments in the financial instruments tied to mortgages.
In recent years, there has been a notable uncertainty surrounding inflation trends and the trajectory of mortgage rates. This uncertainty has led investors to seek higher yields when investing in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) compared to the yields they would receive from investing in government bonds, such as the 10-year Treasury. Mortgage-backed securities represent a bundle of home loans packaged together, similar to bonds, and provide investors with regular interest payments. The spread between mortgage rates and U.S. government bond yields serves as a measure of the difference in interest offered by these two types of investments.
Traditionally, this spread has averaged around 1.7% per month. However, it experienced a significant surge last year, peaking at nearly 3% in June, which marked the widest gap observed since August 1986, according to data from the Federal Reserve.
Mark Fleming, the chief economist at First American Financial, explains that as interest rates began to rise, investors demanded higher premiums over the risk-free rate offered by the 10-year Treasury bonds to compensate for the added risk associated with investing in mortgage-backed securities.
The bond and mortgage markets are intricately tied to various factors, including inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and broader market sentiment. Signs of subdued inflation and indications from the Federal Reserve suggesting potential reductions in short-term interest rates later this year have contributed to declines in mortgage rates and bond yields since they reached multiyear highs in October. Consequently, the spread between the average 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield has generally decreased this year, reaching 2.61% last month.
However, despite this reduction from its peak levels, the spread remains relatively elevated compared to historical norms. This continued elevation puts upward pressure on mortgage rates, resulting in higher borrowing costs for individuals seeking to purchase homes.
For instance, even though the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 4.21% last month, the average 30-year mortgage rate stood at 6.82%. If the spread between mortgage rates and bond yields had aligned with historical averages, the average home loan rate would have been approximately 5.91%.
In essence, while there is an anticipation for mortgage rates to decline in the coming months, as predicted by many economists, the persistently elevated spread between mortgage rates and bond yields is likely to limit the potential savings for prospective homebuyers.
Mark Fleming emphasizes that while any relief in rates is indeed beneficial for potential homebuyers or homeowners contemplating selling their properties, it may require more substantial changes in interest rate dynamics to significantly impact monthly mortgage payments and provide substantial relief to individuals in the housing market.