In a recent YouGov poll conducted shortly after a pivotal debate on June 27, the sentiment among Democratic voters and independents leaning Democratic revealed a clear preference for President Joe Biden over Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president. The survey indicated that 47% of respondents favored Biden, while 32% expressed a preference for Harris. Notably, 21% remained undecided, reflecting a significant segment still evaluating their choices within the party’s leadership.
The findings of the poll reflect a nuanced landscape within the Democratic base. Despite concerns over Biden’s age and questions about his ability to effectively challenge former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election, a majority of those polled leaned towards maintaining Biden as the party’s standard-bearer. This preference underscores a cautious inclination among Democrats, favoring Biden’s extensive experience and perceived electability, despite critiques of his debate performance and ongoing speculation about his potential to serve another term.
Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, provided context on Harris’s position within the party. He acknowledged her historic achievements as the first woman, Black woman, and person of South Asian descent to hold the office of vice president. However, Gift pointed out that Harris has faced challenges in gaining broad support among Democratic voters, as evidenced by her relatively early exit from the 2019 presidential primaries despite initial high expectations.
The survey also illuminated broader sentiments among Democrats regarding potential successors to Biden should he decide to step aside. Nearly half of respondents (47%) expressed the view that Biden should consider yielding his candidacy to another contender for the November election. In contrast, 40% believed he should remain as the nominee, reflecting divided opinions within the party base. Concerns about Biden’s age, health, cognitive abilities, and his perceived ability to defeat Trump were cited as primary factors influencing these viewpoints.
Regarding alternative candidates, the poll highlighted varying levels of approval among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents for figures such as Michelle Obama, Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Bernie Sanders. Notably, a significant majority (66%) expressed approval of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden were to step aside. This sentiment suggests a level of confidence in Harris’s leadership capabilities and electoral appeal among a substantial portion of the Democratic electorate.
Overall, while Biden continues to command significant support as the current nominee, the poll underscores ongoing discussions and deliberations within the Democratic Party concerning leadership, electability, and contingency planning for the upcoming presidential election. As the political landscape evolves, these dynamics will likely continue to shape the party’s strategy and decisions leading up to the pivotal 2024 election.