The traditional wisdom that failure is a crucial stepping stone to success is being challenged by new research. A study published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General by researchers from Northwestern, Cornell, Yale, and Columbia universities reveals that people often overestimate the likelihood of success following failure. This overestimation can have significant implications for individuals and society.
Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, PhD, an assistant professor at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, led the study, which involved 11 studies and over 1,800 participants. The research found that people predict higher success rates after failure than what occurs in reality. For example, participants estimated a 58% success rate for lawyers retaking the bar exam, whereas the actual rate is only 35%. Similarly, they overestimated success rates for individuals with opioid abuse disorders entering treatment programs after an overdose, predicting 51% compared to the real 17%.
This “optimism bias” suggests a broader tendency to be overly hopeful about overcoming failures. According to Eskreis-Winkler, while the narrative that failure fuels success may reduce the fear of failure, it could also lead to complacency and inaction when failures occur. People might not take the necessary steps to achieve resilience and success because they overestimate their likelihood of bouncing back.
Rick Hunt, PhD, from Virginia Tech’s Pamplin College of Business, adds that both glorifying and vilifying failure are misplaced. While failure is common in entrepreneurship and often seen as a learning opportunity, the personal costs of failure are high, and the broader societal benefits are not always shared by the individuals who fail.
Eskreis-Winkler’s research indicates that correcting overly optimistic views about failure could have practical benefits, such as more realistic support for rehabilitation programs for formerly incarcerated individuals. The study underscores the importance of having a realistic perspective on failure and the actual effort required to recover and succeed.
In summary, while failure can provide valuable lessons, the belief that it naturally leads to success is often exaggerated. A more grounded approach, recognizing the real challenges and efforts needed to overcome failure, could foster genuine resilience and more effective strategies for achieving success.