The notion that failure is a necessary stepping stone to success has long been ingrained in popular wisdom and entrepreneurial lore. Icons like Bill Gates and Mark Cuban have extolled the virtues of learning from setbacks, encouraging resilience in the face of adversity. However, recent research published in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General challenges this prevailing narrative, suggesting that society may have overestimated the benefits of failure.
Led by Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, PhD, from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, the study involved extensive analysis across 11 studies with over 1,800 participants. The findings indicated that people tend to overestimate the likelihood of success following failure across various domains, from professional licensing exams to health-related behaviors.
Eskreis-Winkler and her colleagues defined failure broadly as any instance where an individual did not achieve a desired outcome. Success, in contrast, was seen as corrective action that led to progress or attainment of the original goal. For example, participants significantly overestimated the success rates of professionals retaking licensing exams after initial failures. This optimism bias, as termed by Eskreis-Winkler, reflects a broader tendency to be overly optimistic about resilience and bounce-back capabilities in the face of failure.
Rick Hunt, PhD, from Virginia Tech’s Pamplin College of Business, further critiques the romanticism surrounding failure in entrepreneurship. While failure is indeed a common occurrence on the entrepreneurial journey, Hunt suggests that its glorification overlooks the significant personal and financial costs borne by individuals. Celebrity entrepreneurs who wear failure as a badge of honor often do so from a position of relative privilege, minimizing the real risks and hardships faced by many.
Moreover, Eskreis-Winkler’s research highlights the potential detrimental effects of overestimating the benefits of failure, particularly in health outcomes. Participants in the study consistently overestimated the likelihood of positive outcomes following serious health incidents like opioid overdoses or heart attacks. This misplaced optimism, according to Eskreis-Winkler, can lead to misguided policy decisions and inadequate support for interventions aimed at improving health behaviors and recovery rates.
The study underscores the importance of a balanced perspective on failure—one that acknowledges its potential for growth and learning but also recognizes its limits and the harsh realities individuals often face. Rather than solely celebrating failure as a catalyst for success, Eskreis-Winkler suggests a more nuanced approach that incorporates realistic assessments of the challenges and uncertainties involved in recovery and resilience.
In conclusion, while failure remains an inevitable part of life and entrepreneurship, its benefits may have been overstated. Understanding the true probabilities and consequences of failure can inform more effective strategies for personal and professional development, fostering a more resilient and realistic approach to navigating setbacks in life and business.