Analyzing Philip Morris: A Crucial Test Looms with its Heated Tobacco Push in the US

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The charger and the holder (top) of the electric tobacco heating system IQOS of cigarette maker Philip Morris Switzerland are displayed after a news conference in Bern, Switzerland November 19, 2019

Philip Morris International (PMI), the world’s largest tobacco company by market value, is embarking on a bold venture in the United States with its flagship heated tobacco device, IQOS. Despite the dominance of vaping in the U.S. market, PMI is determined to carve out a significant share for IQOS, aiming to transform its image from a conventional cigarette manufacturer to a pioneer in promoting healthier alternatives.

IQOS has already demonstrated remarkable success globally, emerging as the top-selling heated tobacco device. Now, PMI is gearing up to introduce IQOS to American consumers, essentially starting from scratch in a market where heated tobacco is virtually non-existent compared to other alternative nicotine products.

The company’s ambition is clear: to capture a substantial portion of the U.S. cigarette and heated tobacco market, targeting a 10% share within approximately five years of launching the latest version of its IQOS device, slated for around 2025. This ambitious goal translates into the conversion of roughly 2.8 million American smokers to IQOS, a feat that PMI believes is achievable despite skepticism from competitors like British American Tobacco.

Key to PMI’s strategy is the development and promotion of IQOS as a game-changer in tobacco consumption. Unlike traditional cigarettes, IQOS heats tobacco sticks without burning them, aiming to provide a smoking experience with reduced exposure to harmful chemicals released through combustion.

PMI has invested significantly in the development of IQOS, allocating over $12.5 billion towards smoking alternatives. This substantial investment underscores the company’s commitment to offering consumers healthier options while also positioning itself for future growth in a rapidly evolving tobacco landscape.

Moreover, PMI’s track record of success with IQOS in various international markets provides a solid foundation for its U.S. endeavors. The company has received authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to market IQOS as reducing exposure to harmful chemicals compared to traditional cigarettes, a significant regulatory advantage over vaping products.

Despite challenges such as pricing and marketing awareness, PMI’s unique position in the U.S. market presents opportunities for success. With no existing cigarette business in the U.S. since its spin-off from Altria, PMI can fully focus its resources on promoting IQOS and capturing market share. This focused approach, combined with the potential for substantial profits from heated tobacco, makes PMI’s targets not only feasible but also compelling to analysts and investors alike.

In conclusion, PMI’s ambitious goals for IQOS in the United States represent a bold step towards revolutionizing the tobacco industry. By leveraging its expertise, resources, and regulatory advantages, PMI aims to not only capture market share but also lead the charge towards a future where healthier alternatives to traditional smoking are readily available and embraced by consumers.

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