The latest national poll conducted by NBC News has unveiled intriguing insights into the hypothetical 2024 presidential race, indicating a narrow lead for former President Donald Trump over incumbent President Joe Biden. According to the survey’s findings, Trump secured support from 46% of respondents, edging out Biden, who garnered 44%. This development marks a notable shift from the previous poll conducted in January, where Biden held 42% support while Trump stood at 47%.
Conducted via cellphone interviews with 1,000 registered voters between April 12 and 16, the poll carries a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Given this margin of error, definitively determining the frontrunner between the two candidates may prove challenging. However, the fluctuation in percentages between the two NBC News polls suggests a discernible trend in recent months.
Trump’s apparent lead in the survey is underscored by his support among specific demographic groups, including men, white voters, and individuals without college degrees. Conversely, Biden appears to enjoy stronger backing from Black voters, Latino voters, and women. Among independent voters and young constituents, the two candidates find themselves in a virtual tie.
This revelation echoes findings from a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll released the previous month, which similarly depicted Trump with a slight advantage over Biden, securing 40% support compared to Biden’s 38%.
Despite Trump’s narrow lead in direct matchups, the introduction of additional third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein further tightens the contest. In this scenario, Biden’s support increases to 39%, while Trump’s slips to 37%. Notably, a greater proportion of Trump supporters opt for Kennedy in this expanded field.
Moreover, the poll delves into key issues concerning voters, with inflation, the cost of living, and immigration emerging as primary concerns. Biden’s approval rating has experienced a modest uptick from 37% in January to 42% in April. Nevertheless, a majority of respondents continue to express disapproval of his presidential performance.
Distinct preferences are evident in voter perceptions of the candidates’ strengths, with Biden receiving favorable ratings for his stance on abortion and perceived ability to unify the country. Conversely, Trump is lauded for his handling of inflation, perceived competency, and purported mental and physical fitness for the presidency.
Interestingly, voter engagement with the upcoming election appears to be waning, with only 64% of respondents indicating a high level of interest. GOP pollster Bill McInturff describes this level of interest as “off-the-charts low,” suggesting potential implications for voter turnout.
In summary, while Trump currently holds a marginal lead in the poll, Biden’s narrowing of the gap underscores the competitiveness of the impending 2024 presidential contest. As the election approaches, both candidates are poised to engage in rigorous campaigns to sway voters and secure victory.